Olympic simulation: 38 countries represented in Tokyo, 17 teams eligible for the Mixed Team Relay

Photo: World Triathlon / Tommy Zaferes

World Triathlon offers simulations that help predict who will qualify for the upcoming Olympic Games in Tokyo. If the qualifying were to end today, there would be 38 different countries represented, with 55 men and 53 women competing at the Games. (The IOC has decided not to offer the two “tripartite” spots that athletes can apply to under “extreme or unusual circumstances,” so there will be two more women’s spots alloted by the end of the qualification period on June 21.) You can click here to see a PDF of the latest National Olympic Committee (NOC) simulation.

Here are some interesting notes from the latest Olympic qualifying racing:

  1. Friday’s Mixed Relay Olympic Qualification Event saw three teams that had already qualified two men and two women to the Olympics make it to the podium. That means that Belgium, Italy and Switzerland have simply switched their Olympic qualifying positions from individual to relay. Which doesn’t help a team like Norway at all – there was no rolling down of any of the positions, so the fourth-place Norwegians needed a third-place finish to nail a second women’s spot for Tokyo.
  2. Only one country has qualified a full-contingent of three men and three women to the Games in Tokyo so far – the USA. Great Britain has qualified three women and two men so far – hence the upcoming race for a final spot between Alex Yee and Alistair Brownlee. Italy has also qualified three women and two men. France has qualified two women and three men for the Games so far, as have Spain.
  3. There are now 11 teams that have qualified for the Mixed Team Relay: Belgium, Italy and Switzerland will now join the previously-qualified nations including: Japan (host nation) France, Australia, Great Britain, New Zealand, Germany, Netherlands and USA.
  4. Additional teams that will be able to compete in the Mixed Team Relay should the current standings remain (they’ll have two men and two women at the Games): Austria, Canada, Spain, Hungary, Mexico and South Africa.
  5. Mario Mola (ESP) continues to lead the men’s individual Olympic ranking, with Vincent Luis (FRA) in second and Kristian Blummenfelt (NOR) moving up two spots to third thanks to his wins in Yokohama and Lisbon. Click here to see the Men’s Individual Olympic Simulation.
  6. Katie Zaferes (USA) is the leader in the women’s individual Olympic ranking, ahead of Georgia Taylor-Brown (GBR) and Taylor Spivey (USA). Because spots are given to the country and not individual athletes, and based on the American qualification process that saw Summer Rappaport claim a spot at the Tokyo Test Event (where Zaferes crashed) and Taylor Knibb claim another spot at the Yokohama race, either Zaferes or Spivey will be left out of the Games in Tokyo. Click here to see the Women’s Individual Olympic Simulation.
  7. Below you can see a breakdown of the countries who have qualified athletes for Tokyo based on the current standings. The first number are the number of women qualified, the second is the number of men, and the Yes/ No refers to whether or not the team will be able to race in the relay (based on the current standings).

Olympic Games Tokyo 2020
NOCs simulation summary as of May 24 2021
Women Men Mixed Relay

ARG 1 0 No
AUS 2 2 Yes
AUT 2 2 Yes
AZE 0 1 No
BEL 2 2 Yes
BER 1 0 No
BRA 2 1 No
CAN 2 2 Yes
CHI 1 1 No
CHN 1 0 No
CZE 2 0 No
DEN 0 1 No
ECU 1 0 No
EGY 1 0 No
ESP 2 3 Yes
EST 1 0 No
FRA 2 3 Yes
GBR 3 2 Yes
GER 2 2 Yes
HKG 0 1 No
HUN 2 2 Yes
IRL 1 1 No
ISR 0 2 No
ITA 3 2 Yes
JPN 2 2 Yes
KOR 0 0 No
LUX 0 0
MAR 0 1
MEX 2 2 Yes
NED 2 2 Yes
NOR 1 3 No
NZL 2 2 Yes
POR 1 2 No
ROU 0 1 No
RSA 2 2 Yes
RUS 2 1 No
SRB 0 0 No
SUI 2 2 Yes
SVK 1 0 No
SYR 0 0
UKR 1 0
USA 3 3 Yes
38 55 53 17